Deadly Skin Cancer More Common in the UK  

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June 20, 2035 - This year more than 21,000 people in the UK will be diagnosed with malignant melanoma - the deadliest form of skin cancer - which is three times as many as 30 years ago. The reason for the increase is the global warming and that more people in the UK travel abroad to sunnier locations.

Most skin cancers are easily treatable and unlikely to spread, and are called non-melanoma. Malignant melanoma is the most serious type of the disease and may be fatal. It is more common in women than men and research says that sunburns in childhood can double the risk of melanoma in later life.

Some people are born with a greater risk of skin cancer than others. These people tend to burn easily, have fair skin and/or freckles, have red or fair hair and/or pale eyes, have a large number of moles (50+), or have skin cancer in the family (especially melanoma). If one or more of these descriptions apply to you, you should take extra care to protect yourself from the sun.

180 Million Deaths Worldwide from HIV  

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June 26, 2030 - The total number of deaths from HIV/AIDS worldwide is now said to have passed 180 million people, since it was recognized 50 years ago. The most infected are to find in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia.

AIDS is the worst pandemic ever to have hit mankind, and have caused more deaths than the Spanish Flu in 1918-1919 and the Black Death in the 14th century combined. Well, you can add the deaths caused directly by the two world wars during the 20th century too, and AIDS will still outnumber them all. More than half of the deaths from HIV originates from the sub-Saharan Africa, where there now are 14% fewer inhabitants than it would have been without the occurrence of AIDS.

Even though the deaths are tragic, living with the disease put a lot of strain on the average household. The affected families are losing income, as well as get higher expenditure for medical treatment, which impoverish households even further in an already poor part of the world. This forces many families to reduce the consumption of food, which results in malnutrition for all members of the family.

The efforts to raise awareness among the most affected populations have been quite successful during the last decades, as well as lowering the cost for the medicine needed to treat the disease, but there is still no definite cure in sight.

Argument: The numbers of deaths worldwide from AIDS published by the United Nations in the report The Impact of AIDS for year 2025 have been revised for the year 2030.

Questions: What consequences will this loss of human lives have for the strive towards stability in the poor parts of the world?

370 Million People Worldwide Suffer from Diabetes  

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August 1, 2030 - New statistics suggest that more than 370 million people worldwide today suffer from diabetes. The numbers have doubled over the last 30 years. Much of this increase has taken place in developed countries, due to ageing, obesity, unhealthy diets, population growth and sedentary lifestyles.

The direct costs for treating diabetes will only for the US this year be about US$ 506 billion. Although the number of people dying directly from diabetes is approximately 1.5 million worldwide, the number of deaths every year attributable to complications of diabetes is more than 8 million.

Even though improvements have been made in the work for finding a permanent cure for diabetes, the best cure for type-2 diabetes (which results from the body's inability to respond properly to the action of insulin produced by the pancreas) which accounts for about 90% of the cases, is still to exercise and keep a healthy diet. A 30 minute walk each day reduces the incidence of diabetes.

Argument: WHO estimates that 370 million people worldwide will suffer from diabetes in 2030, compared to 177 million in 2000. The figure US$ 506 billion in direct costs for the US to treat diabetes is based on today's cost, the estimated inflation and increase in patients to treat. No eventual cure for diabetes until 2030 is considered. Today the most permanent method of treating diabetes is a pancreas transplant which gives the patient a chance to become independent of insulin injections.

Questions: The most promising cure for diabetes is based on stem cell research. How much of the estimated cost for diabetes in 2030 would be worth investing today to get closer to a cure and what would be the return on that investment? Since physical activity reduces the incidence of diabetes, how much is worth investing in people being more active, already from a young age and to keep them active on a regular basis?